top of page

Way Too Early Max Contracts

Writer's picture: Taj MayfieldTaj Mayfield

Updated: Oct 22, 2019



News broke early Friday morning that No.1 pick Zion Williamson will miss the first few weeks of the season.


My initial reaction was to shadow box the air like Cuba Gooding Jr. in Boyz in Da Hood, but then I got to thinking just how good Zion was in his first four preseason games, and I was willing to give any amount of time or money as long as New Orleans stays on the front of his jersey.


From there, I started wondering how many young stars showed glimpses of enough talent to where a franchise would happily pay a max contract right now, years away from any forced deadline.


Only players entering their third year or less were considered, and certain guys who clearly have shown enough for max contracts like Donovan Mitchell and De'Aaron Fox were left off.


In the end, the list came out to a select few.

 

Zion Williamson

The NBA preseason is only worth as bad as your team was last season, but that doesn't take away from the fact that Zion Williamson gave the world a preseason for the ages.


At 23.3 points per game, Williamson is the only rookie to score over 20 points per games since preseason stats became a thing in the 2005-06 season; the next closest rookie was Kevin Durant in 2007, and he was nearly 5 points behind Zion with 18.8 PPG.


Even with the unofficial scoring totals of past rookie preseason scoring leaders Williamson lands somewhere in the top-5 jammed between David Robinson and Michael Jordan.

The scoring is one thing, but what makes Zion so jaw dropping is how effortless he scores, while displaying layers of his game that rarely get the attention it deserves.


Full-court drives to the basket, perfect reads on help defense and a crafty in-and-out dribble are all elements of Zion's game overshadowed by his SportsCenter dunks.


Shaq-like dominance down low combined with the swiftness of a guard will make Zion unfair for years to come barring injury(please God), and the Pelicans definitely wouldn't hesitate to offer the rookie whatever owner Gayle Benson has in her checkbook.

 

Luka Dončić

If you've never had the honor of watching Luka Dončić play basketball, allow me to assure you that he alone is worth the $28/per month for NBA League Pass.


Dončić somehow plays a step ahead of everyone, to the point where it looks like he's literally toying with defenders, despite playing like he fears the R2 button will jam if he sprints too much.


Coming off a Rookie of the Year season with averages of 20/8/6, Dončić is going to be must see TV for years to come.


Unlike the last large guard to come in and set the league on fire(Tyreke Evans) only to simmer down once everyone game planned around his weaknesses, Dončić has no weakness. The only knock on the 20 year old is his athleticism and defense, and his style of play doesn't require much of either to win Dallas games.


A series of shot and pass fakes combined with crowd-friendly dribble moves and a boy wonder like confidence makes the Mavericks franchise face just that—someone you would gladly pay $100 million to lead your team.

 

Jayson Tatum

Had this article come out at the start of last season, there would be no shadow of a doubt that Jayson Tatum would be a talent that Danny Ainge would gladly throw a max contract at, but the 2018-19 season casted a dark cloud of clanked 20-foot pull-ups over the future of Tatum.


Part of me believes that the 2018-19 playoffs Tatum that drove to the goal fearlessly and looked like a Carmelo Anthony that knew where old Carmelo Anthony failed and came back to give his past self the play style he deserved is still in there.


The other part of me sees a 6'9 wing with all the tools to be a perennial scoring champion settle for long two's like TMac versus Kobe Bryant is the second part of tonight's doubleheader.


Statistically, Tatum was the worst isolation scorer in all of basketball last season among players receiving at least 2 isolation touches per game. At just 0.63 points per possession, Tatum is a less reliable iso scorer than the likes of Jabari Parker(post two ACL tears), Jordan Clarkson and, ironically enough, Carmelo Anthony.


Of all the players on this list, Tatum would receive the max in the most timid manner, but a 6'9 wing with all the tools to be a perennial scoring champion doesn't come around often, making that contract a little easier to slide over despite what numbers say.

 

Jaren Jackson Jr.

At 6'10 with a 7'4 wingspan, Jaren Jackson Jr. has all the potential in the world to be a perennial First Team All-Defense member, and he has an offensive game to match. The Grizzlies bigman is poised to be an anchor for Memphis on both ends of the court for at least the next decade.


The only thing holding Jackson Jr. back is whether or not he himself can stay on the court long enough to dominate like his talent entails. However, foul trouble aside, Jackson Jr. looks like Anthony Davis on an accelerated curve.


And I'm not the only one who sees it.


At 36 % from deep and 55% from the field last season, the Michigan State product has already bested even the most efficient shooting seasons from Davis. If you want to factor in shot attempts and Davis carrying a heavier load, Jackson Jr.'s rookie season effective field goal percentage(54.9) is bested by only one Davis year—a year in which he finished third in the MVP race.


If Jaren Jackson Jr. wasn't hidden by the cloak of the Grizzlies, he'd be touted as the bigman future of the NBA. Memphis has a future top-10 player on their roster, and those are worthy of whatever they want.

 

Trae Young

No one outside of Atlanta has raved about Trae Young more than I have raved about Trae Young. Literally, no one.


The Oklahoma product often gets compared to Steph Curry because of their shared ability to launch it from seemingly anywhere beyond half court, but when I watch Young I see a different two-time MVP point guard. Young's ability to extend his dribble to get the defense out of position and use his shot and creativity as decoys to create passing lanes reminds of Steve Nash.


In Nash's first season receiving over 30 minutes per game, his fifth season in the league, he averaged 15 points and 7 assists. Young averaged 19 points and 8 assists as a rookie who got off to a slow start. Although the two played in two different eras, their games and situations are almost identical.


Nash's "7 seconds or less" Suns wrote the blueprint on playing fast, and Trae Young's Hawks seem primed to replicate that magic, evidenced by the Hawks finishing first in pace of play in Young's rookie season.


It's not far fetched to imagine Young replicating the prime 18 points and 11 assists numbers of Nash, once he strays away from the Curry prototype. Young has proven to be a franchise point guard and the face of the Hawks. If an extension was possible today, it would be hard to believe he doesn't walk away with enough money to purchase all the Bosley in the world.

 

Deandre Ayton

Admittedly, I didn't watch a lot of Phoenix Suns basketball last season. However, I imagine I and their front office would be on the same page of Deandre Ayton being a future max contract guy.


Ayton's combination of size, soft touch and footwork comes around once or twice every generation. It allows Ayton to walk onto the court and automatically have 20 points and 10 rebounds on his stat line.


Unlike the others on this list, Ayton isn't the face of the Phoenix Suns; Devin Booker holds that crown. But Ayton is the neck of the Suns. For those confused, revisit the Buddy Hield article where I detail what franchise neck is. Ayton's complimentary status to Booker is just as valuable as Booker, and, at 7'1 with the skills he possesses, a change in the hierarchy wouldn't catch many by surprise.


The lone knock on Ayton comes on the defensive end, as Joel Embiid so elegantly put it.

However, when offering generational talents max contracts, sometimes it's safe to overlook a few shortcomings. Emphasis on the sometimes(i.e. Andrew Wiggins).



Comments


bottom of page